An unexpected job surge confounds the Fed’s economic models

A construction worker pauses at a building site, Thursday, Jan. 26, 2023, in Boston. America’s employers added a robust 517,000 jobs in January, a surprisingly strong gain in the face of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive drive to slow growth and tame inflation with higher interest rates.(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Does the Federal Reserve have it wrong? For months, the Fed has been warily watching the economy’s robust job gains out of concern that employers, desperate to hire, will keep boosting pay and, in turn, keep inflation elevated. But January’s blowout job growth coincided with an actual slowdown in wage growth. And it followed an easing of numerous inflation measures in recent months. The past year’s consistently robust hiring gains have defied the fastest increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate in four decades — an aggressive effort by the central bank to cool hiring, economic growth and spiking prices. Instead, economists were astonished when the government reported Friday that employers added an explosive 517,000 jobs last month.


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