(File Photo of the AAA East Central Logo)
Noah Haswell, Beaver County Radio News
(Pittsburgh, PA) During the Thanksgiving holiday period from Tuesday, November 25th to Monday, December 1st, AAA projects that 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home. The domestic travel forecast in 2025 includes another 1.6 million travelers compared to Thanksgiving in 2024, which set a new overall record. Compared to other holidays like the Fourth of July and Memorial Day, Thanksgiving is the single busiest holiday for travel. According to a release from AAA East Central, here is some more information and statistics that relate to Thanksgiving travel this year:
Mid-Atlantic Region Thanksgiving Forecast (Tuesday, Nov. 25 to Monday, Dec. 1.)
*Region includes New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania
| Method of Travel |
Total Travelers |
Increase from 2024 |
| Automobile |
8.9 million |
2.2% |
| Air Travel |
865,000 |
2.7% |
| Other (bus, train, ship, etc.) |
197,000 |
4.6% |
| Region Total |
10 million |
2.3% |
Thanksgiving Travelers by Mode of Transportation
By Car: AAA projects at least 73 million people will travel by car, that’s nearly 90 percent of Thanksgiving travelers. That figure could increase depending on flight cancellations and travelers opting for alternate modes of transportation. This year, AAA projects an additional 1.3 million travelers on the road compared to last Thanksgiving but given recent flight reductions that number could be higher.
For travelers who are renting cars, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Wednesday is expected to be the busiest pick-up day. The top 5 markets with the highest demand are Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Miami, and Newark. According to AAA booking data, domestic car rentals are 15% cheaper this Thanksgiving compared to last year.
At the pump, drivers are paying about the same as last year, when the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.06 on Thanksgiving Day. Filling the tank is a good idea the night before a road trip since it’s one less thing to do on travel day. AAA also recommends checking your battery and tire pressure. Last Thanksgiving holiday period, AAA responded to nearly 600,000 emergency roadside assistance calls to help stranded drivers with issues like dead batteries, flat tires, and empty fuel tanks.
As drivers prepare to get behind the wheel, AAA and MADD remind travelers about the dangers of impaired driving. This time of year can be particularly deadly on the roads. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, from 2019 to 2023, the death toll in drunk-driving crashes during Thanksgiving festivities was 868, representing more than one-third (35%) of all fatalities in traffic crashes during that holiday period. Have a plan in place before Thanksgiving, and use a rideshare, designate a sober driver, or take public transit to ensure everyone’s safety.
By Air: According to AAA, 6 million U.S. travelers are expected to take domestic flights over the Thanksgiving holiday period, a 2% increase compared to 2024. Some of those travelers may switch their mode of transportation as the holiday approaches, if flight disruptions remain a concern. The number of Thanksgiving air travelers over the past several years – except for 2020 – has been between 5 and 6 million.
According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their Thanksgiving trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $700 which is similar to last year. It’s cheaper to fly on Thanksgiving Day itself, but the flight home is what drives up the ticket price since Sunday and Monday are the busiest return days. Some travelers shorten or extend their Thanksgiving trips to avoid flying on peak days.
By Other Modes: Travel by other modes is expected to increase by 8.5% to nearly 2.5 million people. Those travelers are taking trips by bus, train, and cruise. Buses and trains could see an uptick in last-minute bookings this year.
Cruising is building on its record post-pandemic growth. This year alone, AAA is projecting 20.7 million American cruise passengers. That number is even higher for 2026 with AAA forecasting 21.7 million U.S. travelers taking ocean cruises. Cruise vacations are appealing during Thanksgiving, especially to the Caribbean, because the weather is mild, the trip is paid for in advance, families can bring grandparents and kids, and everyone is entertained.
AAA’s Thanksgiving Top Destinations
The top holiday destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data for the Thanksgiving travel period. Florida is the most popular domestic destination, thanks to the area’s theme parks and cruise ports. The international list is a mix of Europe, the Caribbean, and Australia for its warm spring weather this time of year.
|
DOMESTIC
|
INTERNATIONAL
|
|
ORLANDO, FL
|
PARIS, FRANCE
|
|
FORT LAUDERDALE, FL
|
AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
|
|
MIAMI, FL
|
VIENNA, AUSTRIA
|
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ANAHEIM/LOS ANGELES, CA
|
CANCUN, MEXICO
|
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TAMPA, FL
|
PUNTA CANA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC |
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NEW YORK, NY
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BASEL, SWITZERLAND
|
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SAN FRANCISCO, CA
|
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA
|
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HONOLULU, HI
|
BARCELONA, SPAIN
|
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LAS VEGAS, NV
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BUDAPEST, HUNGARY
|
|
ATLANTA, GA
|
ORANJESTAD, ARUBA
|
Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon to be the most congested periods before Thanksgiving Day. Travelers returning home on Sunday should expect heavy traffic most of the day. Drivers should hit the road in the morning to avoid the worst backups, but keep in mind construction, crashes, or severe weather could impact travel times. Slow Down, Move Over for emergency responders and other stopped vehicles on the side of the road to ensure everyone’s safety.
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Best and Worst Times to Drive
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Date
|
Worst Travel Time
|
Best Travel Time
|
|
|
Tuesday, Nov 25
|
12:00 PM – 9:00 PM
|
Before 12:00 PM
|
|
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Wednesday, Nov 26
|
11:00 AM – 8:00 PM
|
Before 11:00 AM
|
|
|
Thursday, Nov 27
|
Minimal Traffic Impact Expected
|
|
|
|
Friday, Nov 28
|
1:00 PM – 7:00 PM
|
Before 11:00 AM
|
|
|
Saturday, Nov 29
|
1:00 PM – 8:00 PM
|
Before 10:00 AM
|
|
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Sunday, Nov 30
|
11:00 AM – 8:00 PM
|
Before 11:00 AM
|
|
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Monday, Dec 1
|
12:00 PM – 8:00 PM
|
After 8:00 PM
|
|
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SOURCE: INRIX
Holiday Travel Forecast Methodology
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.
Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.
The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of October 20, 2025.
Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.
INRIX Methodology
INRIX blends statistically grounded models with real-world road behavior to forecast travel conditions on the most heavily traveled routes across the U.S. during peak holiday periods. INRIX’s holiday traffic forecast combines pre-selected high-impact travel routes, rich multi-source traffic data, and a statistically robust linear regression model to generate detailed, time-specific travel delay predictions. INRIX’s data sources include a wide array of vehicle-based and infrastructure-based inputs. These include connected vehicle GPS data, mobile apps and navigation services, roadside sensors and cameras, and commercial fleet telematics. With expansive coverage, high temporal resolution, and historical context, this forecasting process provides essential insights for travelers, media, and agencies alike.
Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Period
The Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the seven-day period from Tuesday, November 25 to Monday, December 1, 2025. This Thanksgiving travel window was instituted starting in 2024. Historical results were calculated dating back to 2019 using the same seven-day period.
